🔎What is Pubhouse?
Pubhouse is a prediction market launchpad allowing anyone to create binary markets and trade them like tokens.
Each market operates as an independent two-token economy where YES and NO shares trade on separate constant product bonding curves, as pioneered by Uniswap v2, where X * Y = K.
Pubhouse brings the traditional token launchpad model to prediction markets, creating a unique model where traders bet on the virality, growth of the market, and ultimately the truth.
Each market's side – YES and NO – is initialised at $50,000 market cap, allowing early traders to capture uncapped upside and bet on the attention of the market.
Traders can buy or sell shares in either pool with USDC. The bonding curve formula adjusts prices based on supply and demand—as traders buy YES shares, the YES pool's share reserves decrease and quote reserves increase, pushing the YES price higher, and vice versa. Trades on one side do not impact the price of the other side. This creates organic price discovery driven purely by trading activity.
Creators of markets use natural language to generate new markets. To avoid duplicate topics and liquidity fragmentation, Pubhouse prevents the creation of identical or too-similar markets. This protects creators and their markets as intellectual property, while maintaining an open, permissionless creation process.
🤝 Who is Pubhouse For?
Is Pubhouse yet another prediction market platform? The short answer is no.
Pubhouse seeks to create a more rewarding, fun, and engaging experience in trading event markets. The platform aims to cater for the following group of users:
Speculators: traders who want to speculate on markets and growth of the topic beyond the legacy $0.01-1$ range. Pubhouse markets have uncapped upside and unlimited growth above the initial $50K starting market cap.
Predictors: those who are interested in the ultimate resolution of the market. Pubhouse markets accrue fees from the speculators that will be used to pay out the winners of the market, in addition to the losing side's entire value.
Creators: those who believe they can curate their own predictions and act as Key Prediction Leaders for actual markets with resolvable outcomes. Creators earn 10% of trading fees in perpetuity.
🎟️ Key Features
Trade any binary prediction market like a low market cap token. 50% of trading fees are accrued to the winners of the market.
Create unique prediction markets using simple natural language and a single click: no forms, resolution criteria, or initial odds decisions needed.
Created markets are instantly tradeable with 10% of trading fees in USDC accrued to the creator.
Discover existing markets if your idea is too similar.
P&L (Profit and Loss) can be realised at any point while the market remains unresolved.
No need for liquidity providers due to the unique vAMM model for prediction markets.
Markets are resolved using a sophisticated AI system with checks and balances, and a dispute mechanism for humans to participate and earn oracle fees (1% of trading fees).
🤔 How it works
The lifecycle of a prediction market on Pubhouse is split into two distinct stages. These stages use different profit-and-loss (P&L) calculation methods to ensure the sustainability of the markets and profitability for the participants.
Open Trading Stage: traders buy Yes or No shares using USDC. P&L is directly linked to the YES or NO share prices, with traders allowed to realize their positions' profit or loss on demand.
Resolution Stage: after the outcome of the market is accepted, trading in the market ends. Winning traders divide the losing side's total USDC collateral, while the losing traders' positions become worth zero. To supplement traders' profits at this stage, the trading fees accumulated are shared with the winning traders.
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